One role of political organizations and politicians is to bring the debate about future policy goals for countries or regions to the public. In political programs, we often find strong statements what needs to be done or changed to a better good in the future. Yet, it seems to be difficult to maintain strategic future messages over time as the political landscape changes often and radically these days. Political organizations must be aware that credible political communication derives from a credible temporal storyline.
In democracies, when there is an election campaign or government program we find elaborate statements about the future. For example, the coalition agreement of the German government mentions the term “future” 59 times, including specific statements about “future commission”, “creating the future”, or “key future technologies”. The governing labour party in the UK in its plan for change talks about providing a “clear destination for everyone invested in Britain’s future”. Canadas liberal party claims in its political manifesto that “it’s time to build a future that makes Canada strong”.
In addition, recent examples of political organizations like the European Commission (Annual Strategic Foresight Report, the World Economic Forum (Global Foresight Network) or the United Nations (“UN 2.0 Network”) show that organizations increasingly choose to bring the debate about the future to organizational stakeholders and the public. The political guidelines of the European Commission for the years 2024-2029 mention the term “future” 30 times alone in connection with “future generations”, “common future”, or “prepare the future”.
It looks like the future is something that is always omnipresent in political manifesto and yet not very clear in its form.
It looks like the future is something that is always omnipresent in political manifesto and yet not very clear in its form. From the perspective of political organizations, the future is something that needs to bring changes for a better good. But on what are all these statements built? Is there essential proof that a certain future political objective will materialize in the future and how? How can we trust these future-related political messages?
Temporality of political communication
In an article from Stefan Müller from the University College Dublin we find information what time political parties stress in their communication. Müller analyses the temporal focus of over 380,000 sentences from 621 party manifestos, drafted before 150 elections across nine countries (Australia, Austria, Canada, Germany, Ireland, New Zealand, Switzerland, the UK and the United Stated) between 1949 and 2017. He finds that parties devote, on average, half of a manifesto to future promises (the other describing half the past and present). In sentences on the future, incumbents and opposition parties seem to express similar levels of sentiment, yet the future is often portrayed more positive than the past. Incumbents and opposition parties differ most strongly in sentences on the past, where incumbents and opposition parties are most negative on their assessment of the past.
In general, political organizations and political parties have an important function in the political discussion process. As part of the political discussion process, parties express the political positions, wishes, and needs of their members and/or voters (interest articulation function). The more heterogeneous the interests of their members or voters are, the more these interests need to be bundled, summarized, and weighted. Externally, parties often try to cover as wide a range of interests as possible through compromise formulas or ambiguous programmatic formulations in order to appeal to an as large voter base as possible.
Future communication beyond political programs
It seems that the future in political programs is always bright and shiny. The central argument is always that if the political program that is promised gets done in the future, most things will be better. Ok, this is an awkwardly strong reduction of a complex matter. But really: how can we proof that things turned out in the future the way they used to be?
A fact-based, future-oriented communication of political organization towards future opportunities and challenges becomes more important. As the uncertainty and complexity of future events increases, such communication provides orientation for stakeholders. It triggers imagination, dialogue and discussion. It aligns stakeholders towards potential future position and supports differentiation from competitors and rivals. Yet, a communication on future issues and promises must come with a certain “proof of concept”. Are the things based on clear analysis and strategy? How do politicians want to achieve these goals? What if things change? How can we proof all that?
A communication on future issues and promises must come with a certain “proof of concept”. Are the things based on clear analysis and strategy? How do politicians want to achieve these goals? What, if things change? How can we proof all that?
Therefore, we need a better alignment of political messages regarding the future with strategic foresight and strategic monitoring. After all, it’s all about credibility of political stakeholders, whether promises have been met. This means that strategic paths need to be explained properly while being executed. This is even more important in times of a complex political world with rising sentiments, hyperdynamic social media communication arenas and an increasing number of political stakeholders.
This is also being argued in political science, for instance by Mathias Verstergaard from Aarhus Universitsy. Because of major changes in the political landscape, political stakeholders can use policy commitments to gain credibility in the increasing competition for votes: “While extensive promise making is ideal for establishing a well-functioning democracy because voters can use promises to hold parties accountable, parties’incentives to bind themselves to their future behaviour seem less clear”, he writes. And further he concludes: “Parties must weigh two key considerations when deciding how much to commit: either they make heavy use of commitments to enhance the short-term credibility of their electoral programme, or they adopt more modest language to preserve their flexibility after the election.” So, formulating realistic future objectives and monitoring and explaining them along their path is extremely important. The thing is: it does not always seem to be the reality.
Formulating realistic future objectives and monitoring and explaining them along their path is extremely important. The thing is: it does not always seem to be the reality.
A managed approach of future-oriented political communication
In order to be better organized when it comes to credible future political messages (i.e. promises), we need three pillars of a future-oriented political communication.
- Foresight – build credible future paths: Foresight helps in developing future scenarios, roadmaps and milestones regarding future promises and objectives. It supports that political messages can be bound to a serious analysis of how things might develop. Therefore, they support credibility as the political organization deals with possible and preferable scenarios of how it wants to act in the future. Interestingly, foresight is something that is not automatically institutionalized in political organizations, as Max Priebe and colleagues from Fraunhofer show. Yet, it could provide a good ground for fact-based future-oriented political communication.
- Temporality – explain your path from past to future: Once they have a clear understanding of what they want to achieve and how it should be met in the future, political organizations should focus on the proportion of past, present and future-related political messages. As the present is based in past events, so do future paths evolve – based on past and present events. What happened in the past? What does it mean now and how do we want to react in the future? Political organizations must be aware that credible political communication derives from a credible temporal storyline. If we just claim something we believe the future will develop – without explaining the path from past to future – its difficult for others to follow.
- Organization – materialize your strategy path with strategic communication: It is important to match communication plans and budgets with foresight activities and temporality. Out of question, political organization invest a huge amount of money in PR and political campaigning. This means that political core messages and communication materials can benefit from foresight as it provides proof to an organizations future path. And if future objectives need to be adapted along the way, such an approach helps in explaining why changes are needed. Proactive rather than reactive communication strategies are key. When different future scenarios have been analyzed, it is easier to argue about a political position – even in times of radical changes or wildcard events. Stick to the position and messages that you think is your best match with the future. And couple it with your communication strategy.
Political organizations must be aware that credible political communication derives from a credible temporal storyline.
All in all, being credible in super complex times is not an easy task for political organizations. A more structured approach on future messages and promises may, however, increase credibility and stabilize external anticipation of political positions.