A lot of people and organizations live short-sighted. What happens in 5 years? Who cares! As everything gets more complex, its better to stick to the present and let other people think about the future. A huge but human mistake. Short-termism is natural. But long-termism can even help you in becoming a future-oriented thought-leader, promoting your personal or organizational future path.
Short-term thinking is very human. As the future is messy and ambiguous it is difficult for people to understand and imagine a future that is uncertain and subjective. This has evolutionary reasons as the human brain rewards success in the here and now (in the prescient age, this was hunting food and not being eaten yourself). So the further the future is away, the harder it gets to imagine it. Dorie Clark, one of the Top 50 business thinkers in the world and author of the book The Long Game points out that it is worth taking the long-term perspective for individuals.
“It’s human to want short-term results—to see that our efforts are working, and paying off in real time. But the truth is, some of the most meaningful outcomes—the things we truly want to work toward in our lives and careers—take time, often far longer than we might want.” – Dorie Clark
Long-term thinking is also important for enterprises. A long-term view can help in detecting future strategy paths and proactively shape organizational paths regarding future options. It’s not surprising that there exist a variety of academic journals like Long Range Planning, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, or Futures for a deep discussion of drivers of change and methods and cases for futures studies, foresight and long-term development paths of organizations. In terms of communication, a long-term perspective gives you the opportunity to proactively shape your agenda and make a competitive difference. Strategic communication is helpful here as it is all communication connected to the strategic objectives of an organization.
The three essentials of long-term thinking
So what does it mean to take a long-term perspective? And is there a difference in organizational and individual long-term thinking?
First, it’s all about creating futures literacy. The UNESCO defines it as: “Futures Literacy helps people understand why and how we use the future to prepare, plan, and interact with the complexity and novelty of our societies. Through structured on-the-ground learning-by-doing activities known as Futures Literacy Laboratories (FLLs), communities and individuals can learn about how the origins of what they imagine and can empower them to diversify their actions.” Being futures-literate empowers the imagination. It enhances the ability to prepare, recover and invent in the face of change. It’s all about preparing and planing for new things to come.
Second, you need foresight as a planned and institutionalized activity. Foresight is all tools and methods that help you identifying, observing and interpreting factors of change. This can be scenario techniques, narratives, or future pictures. Even thought you do not have the resources for a broad foresight setting in your organization (i.e. you are a start-up or one woman/man show) there are plenty of helpful exercises and templates you can use – for example the Aurecon Futures Playbook. Everybody can do it. You do not need to be a superforecaster – a growing number of tools and methods for foresight and futures studies is available and can be used.
Third, its about opening yourself up to other people. Collective intelligence is the key here. It does not make sense to analyze your long-term development on your own but you need other people. This is even more important for organizations. By opening up your future analysis and foresight activities you are able to overcome biases, get our of your (organizational) bubble and include interdisciplinary thinking.
A long-term agenda setting mindset is key, as it helps you in strengthening your message over time. The result: People understand what you and your organization stands for in the future. You will be perceived as a “orientation giver” in complex times.
And finally, you need a communication plan to give messages on your future paths to the public. This includes a sound analysis of stakeholders, target group, a proper resource allocation, media choice and a good plan on how to get your future-oriented strategic messages across. Here, a long-term agenda setting mindset is key, as it helps you in strengthening your message over time. The result: People understand what you and your organization stands for in the future. You will be perceived as a “orientation giver” in complex times. Ty it, its worthwhile!